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- Document 2323
- DOCN M94A2323
- TI Backcalculation using dates of HIV antibody tests.
- DT 9412
- AU Dietz K; Dept. of Med. Biometry, Tuebingen, Germany.
- SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):330 (abstract no. PC0255). Unique
- Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370252
- AB OBJECTIVE: To estimate past incidence of HIV infection, of HIV antibody
- testing and of treatment on the basis of data on AIDS incidence together
- with dates of HIV antibody tests for those cases for whom a test was
- performed before AIDS diagnosis and to estimate current HIV prevalence
- with and without an HIV diagnosis. METHODS: The backcalculation method
- is based on a Markov model for the incubation time distribution which
- describes as well the transitions from infection to AIDS as through the
- states not yet tested, tested, not yet treated and tested and treated.
- The method is illustrated using data on AIDS cases reported to the
- German Federal Office of Health in Berlin. RESULTS: The peak HIV
- incidence for homosexuals, IV drug users and heterosexual contacts
- occurred in 1983, 1984 and 1987, respectively. The proportion of the
- overall prevalence without a test is about one third. The absolute total
- prevalence at the end of 1993 is stimated between 30,000 and 40,000.
- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: (i) The method may be applied in other
- countries where dates of tests are collected on a routine basis. (ii)
- The estimates of the prevalence of treated HIV positives agree well with
- the results of surveys among samples of medical practitioners.
- DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION AIDS
- Serodiagnosis/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Female Germany/EPIDEMIOLOGY
- Homosexuality/STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Human HIV
- Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION HIV Seroprevalence/TRENDS Male
- Population Surveillance Substance Abuse,
- Intravenous/COMPLICATIONS/EPIDEMIOLOGY MEETING ABSTRACT
-
- SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
- protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).
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